Chinese herbal medicines skyrocketing during the year

The business club reported on December 23 that "After last year, 7 prescriptions for this prescription were 110 yuan, and this year it was 410 yuan." Xiaoran discovered that the price of Chinese herbal medicine was not outrageous. . “It's just an ordinary warm-up nursed back to health raising formula. There are some Taizishen and what is not worthy of any valuable medicine.”

Winter was originally the best time for tonic. However, due to the price increase of Chinese herbal medicines, it may be a price for one day to go to the pharmacy to catch the Chinese medicine. Many consumers complained: "Almost the prescriptions are all four pairs. As long as 60 yuan a week ago, they are now more than 120 yuan." "The last time we bought more than 100 yuan, it is now more than 150 yuan. In the past, a ladle spoonful had been used, and in the future it might have to be replaced by a spoonful."

According to statistics from CITIC Securities, as of the beginning of November, Taizishen had a price of 53 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year, the latest price was 240 yuan/kg, and the year-to-date increase was 353%, while the lowest price for heterophylla was only 9 yuan/kg; Codonopsis At the beginning of the year, the price was 13 yuan/kg, and the latest price was 34 yuan, a record high, or an increase of 162%. At the beginning of the year, the price was 200 yuan/kg, and the latest price was 335 yuan/kg, an increase of 68%. Other Chinese medicine varieties such as Zhonglou, Cordyceps, Chinese angelica, and Guizhi all showed different degrees of price increase.

After the "garlic you," "beans, you play," "Ginger, your army," "What," after "drug you bitter" has become everyone's other mantra. The reporter learned from the Shanghai Association of Chinese Medicine Industry that from December 10th onwards, all pharmacies and hospitals in Shanghai increased the price of more than 300 pieces of traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces, and the estimated increase was as high as 44.06%. This is the third time this year the price adjustment has been the largest.

Hot money involved in "push up"

“The main areas for the cultivation of Chinese herbal medicines are in the southwest region. This year’s severe flooding caused by droughts and floods has caused a decline in the yield of many varieties of Chinese herbal medicines, and has even resulted in an unacceptable harvest.” Guo Fanli, a research fellow at CIC Advisors, said in an interview with reporters that Chinese herbal medicines are starting from the beginning of this year. Faced with the situation that the supply has become less, on the other hand, as people's living standards have increased, the demand for health products using Chinese herbal medicines as raw materials continues to increase, so the price increase is an inevitable trend.

“Chinese herbal medicines can also be said to be agricultural and sideline products to some extent.” Xu Jinbai, president of the Shanghai Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry Association, told reporters that other agricultural products have risen differently this year. From the perspective of “horizontal parity”, prices of Chinese herbal medicines are normal.

“As the cost of labor increases, the cost of planting Chinese herbal medicines in rural areas is also rising. Moreover, many small varieties of Chinese herbal medicine are wild, and formerly mainly rural elderly and children picking, and now rural living standards are improving, and wild herbs are being picked. The labor force is also getting less and less."

From this perspective, the change in supply and demand will inevitably drive up the price of herbal medicines. "But if it's just the price rise caused by supply and demand, it should be a rational, moderating rise. From a plan view, it should be a moderately rising curve, not too steep." Guo Fanli said that the speculation factor of private capital is The main reason for the skyrocketing Chinese herbal medicine prices. "It can be said that private capital has chosen the opportunity to cut the production of Chinese herbal medicine this year."

Guo Fanli told reporters that the annual output of some small varieties of Chinese herbal medicines may be only several hundred thousand tons. If the amount of funds is sufficient, it can be bought out completely and stockpiling is not allowed. "Hot money can be purchased directly from the farmers. It does not need any market segment at all."

Part of proprietary Chinese medicine or reduced production

It is understood that traditional Chinese medicines are generally divided into three categories: Chinese herbal medicines, Chinese herbal medicines, and proprietary Chinese medicines. With the rise in the price of Chinese herbal medicines, companies that produce Chinese Herbal Medicines and proprietary Chinese medicines may face cost inversion. “From the entire pharmaceutical industry, the profit rate of proprietary Chinese medicines and Chinese herbal medicines is relatively low. After Chinese herbal medicines have risen in price this year, many companies have produced more losses.” Xu Jinbai told reporters, according to statistics from the Shanghai Association of Chinese Medicine Industry, Shanghai this year The profit rate of pharmaceutical companies selling TCM decoction pieces is about 2.2%. The profitability of proprietary Chinese medicines is between 8.5% and 12%, while that of biopharmaceuticals is between 35% and 45%, and that between chemical drugs is between 13% and 15%.

For example, Xu Jinbai said that last year, Taizishen's decoction piece price was 8 cents/gram, and after adjustment, the current price was 1.41 jiao/gram, which was an increase of more than 70%. However, the price of Taizishen raw material on the market is currently sold at 2.6~2.8 pt/g. The high quality is sold at 3.4 ct/g, which is much higher than the price of the pieces. In a recent survey of 18 Chinese herbal medicines in Shanghai, it was found that more than 200 Chinese herbal medicines had close to or even exceeded the retail price. “So this time we have adjusted the price of Chinese Herbal Medicine Pieces, hoping to ease the cost-inverted situation of Chinese medicine companies.” Xu Jinbai said.

“The composition of a proprietary Chinese medicine may contain more than a dozen kinds of Chinese herbal medicines, so the price increase of Chinese herbal medicine has a great influence on Chinese patent medicine companies.” Guo Fanli said that if it is to increase the market's retail sales for proprietary Chinese medicines that belong to the list of basic medicines prescribed by the state, The price must be approved by the NDRC. Even if the price can be raised, it will take some time. "So now many Chinese patent medicine companies have begun to cut production or stop production, because the more you sell, the more you can lose. Companies will consider waiting for Chinese herbal medicines to drop in price, or to find new profit growth points."

According to the "National Essential Drug List" released by the Ministry of Health in 2009, 102 kinds of proprietary Chinese medicines such as Ganmao Qingre Granules, Yinqiao Jiedu Pills, Huoxiang Zhengqishui, Banlangen Granules, Niuhuang Jiedu Pills and Sanjiuweitai Granules are all basic national drugs. They are all listed in the NDRC limit drugs. Therefore, in the short term, there is no pressure for such basic drugs to rise, but related companies are under great cost pressure. China Resources Sanjiu disclosed in the 2010 interim report that the Company’s cost control was under great pressure. The price of some raw materials and accessories rose rapidly, the overall price of Chinese herbal medicines rose by more than 20%, the price of sugar rose by more than 30%, and the cost rose to make OTC. The gross profit margin of the traditional Chinese medicine formula granule business has declined.

“But some pharmaceutical companies mainly trade in Chinese herbal medicine, and they have upstream and downstream integration of planting bases. The price increase of Chinese herbal medicines is beneficial to such enterprises.” Dai Fei, chief strategy analyst at Zhide Investment, told reporters that Kangmei Pharmaceutical is benefiting Representatives of pharmaceutical companies. “Kangmei Pharmaceutical has acquired three major trading bases for Chinese herbal medicines and has a lot of medicinal materials. There are more than 2,000 tons of ginseng reserves and there are a lot of 37. If you do a single Chinese herbal medicine trade, you can get a lot of money.”

Hard to drop prices during the year

Under normal circumstances, the price of Chinese herbal medicine is relatively stable, because the period of Chinese herbal medicine planting is 3 to 4 years. If prices are low this year and increase production next year, prices may be high again. It is basically a three-year volatility. Guo Fanli said that for the irrational price increase of Chinese herbal medicines, Chinese herbal medicine prices will hardly return to rationality during the year. "Every winter before the Spring Festival, prices will not fall. Winter itself is a season of various illnesses. Many people will purchase health products to improve immunity. The overall demand is still very strong."

Guo Fanli pointed out that the most important factor in this round of upswing is the speculation of hot money. If this problem is not resolved, even after the Spring Festival next year, prices may not be able to fall. “In fact, the state can introduce some measures to stabilize prices, such as planning certain annual planting areas of Chinese herbal medicines, or a part of the country’s inventories. When the market price is too high, the state can put inventories. This will at least reduce the chance for hot money speculation.”

In fact, as one of the broad "agricultural and sideline products," high-end Chinese herbal medicines also have anti-inflation properties. “Rare and expensive Chinese herbal medicines require a specific climate and the soil is able to grow. After some Chinese herbs (such as ginseng) are planted, the land will not be able to grow other things for the next four or five years.” Dai Fei pointed out that the future demand for such high-end medicinal materials It will continue to grow and supply will be relatively limited. Under the conditions of high inflation, scarce Chinese herbal medicine such as ginseng and Cordyceps will show its anti-inflation effect.

It is worth noting that this round of wildly rising Chinese herbal medicines does not involve the current high-end herbs such as ginseng. Dai Fei told reporters that although ginseng prices have risen this year, compared with historical high prices in the past few years, the current price of ginseng is still relatively underestimated.