　　 1. Artificial intelligence technology significantly reduces the rate of misdiagnosis
Even now, such as Mayo, it is said that the rate of initial diagnosis is as high as 40%. It is estimated that the rate of initial diagnosis in domestic hospitals is as high as 60% or even higher. The high rate of initial diagnosis is the core issue of current medical science. The root of the problem lies in the limitations of doctors' personal knowledge and experience. Whether it can support clinical diagnosis and treatment decisions through big data accumulation and artificial intelligence technology in the future, thus reducing misdiagnosis. rate? I am optimistic about this. Such a complex system will not become a reality soon, but the technology is developing at a speed of ten times, and it should be applied on a large scale in 2020.
2. Precision medicine is popularized
The precise medical treatment that Obama proposed recently has gained global attention. The basis of precision medicine is personal genetic screening. It is said that the cost of personal genetic screening has dropped to 70 US dollars, and the cost is still falling rapidly, and the screening speed is still increasing. Due to advances in genetic screening technology, future precision medicine and the 4P medicine we have been talking about are expected to become clinical reality. The main obstacle now is that the link between the results of genome-wide screening and the disease is still not clear enough and specific. But there are already some that can be used in the clinic.
3. The development of telemedicine
In the future, mobile Internet technology will further develop, the network speed will be further improved, and the traffic fee will be further reduced to a very low level. Under the premise of high network speed and low traffic fee, big data cloud storage and cloud computing can be realized, which is The combination of video technology support will lead to telemedicine becoming a reality. In the future, ordinary people will have access to better and better specialists. As a result, the number of general practitioners may not be as much, which provides a new solution for China's primary health care - it may not be necessary to take the UK's general practitioner model now.
4. Online continuing medical education will become mainstream
It is also necessary to go to an academic event through business trips and travel, which is costly and time consuming. Future distance learning technology can better connect large experts with general practitioners, domestic doctors and foreign doctors, scientists and doctors, doctors and doctors, doctors and learning resources around the world. They will be able to launch anytime, anywhere on their mobile phones. Learning and peer-to-peer communication, this is the future CME picture.
5. Cheap surgical robots make remote surgery popular
The surgical robot is derived from the aerospace program, and its intention is to solve the problem of telesurgery for astronauts. Now because the price problem is not universal enough, if the surgical robot can become the standard of the hospital or clinic in the future, the surgeon's service ability and service radius will be greatly expanded. Anesthesia, care, and local surgeon supervision are still required in the remote operating room. It is possible that remote experts only need to participate in the development of the surgical plan, responsible for the most critical surgical procedures - this is similar to the current large experts in their own hospitals.
6. Medical reform is expected to be successful
By 2020, can China's medical reform solve the most basic problems? -- Free practice of medical care, open medical market, separation of medical and medical care, reasonable medical prices, government management and basic medical care, and relying on the market to solve most of the needs? I think it is optimistic. Once the medical reform is successful, the clinical ability of the medical care will be marketized, and their labor will receive reasonable compensation. The topic of such importance is placed behind because the possibility of successful medical reform is not seen in the near future.
7. Health professionals will gain access
Why is the gap between doctors and nurses in China so large? Why does the medical school not attract the best students?
By its very nature, it is because the current income of the human resources market is not competitive. Only the marketization of human resources of doctors and nurses can lead to an increase in high-level medical care income, which will lead to the attraction of this industry to talents. Only doctors at all levels are attractive, and the threshold for medical care can be improved. If the grassroots does not attract a doctor, the policy of replacing it with a barefoot doctor will not change, and the threshold of doctors and nurses will not be improved. Looking into 2020, there is reason to be optimistic about this, although I am still not sure.
8. The pharmaceutical industry continues to smash and improve the equipment industry
Our pharmaceutical industry can not only develop innovative drugs at the international level, but also cannot produce high-quality drugs. Can this problem be improved in the next 20 years? I am not optimistic about this. The progress of China's medical device industry will be more certain. The main reason is that China's pharmaceutical industry has received too much protection and there are too many administrative interventions. As a result, the national pharmaceutical industry does not need to develop products in accordance with the requirements of the international norm market to obtain good returns. Because of the huge interest groups in the field, it is difficult to imagine a fundamental change in the future. In contrast, medical device companies have a high probability of achieving the most important position in the field of basic medical device manufacturing.
9. Cancer treatment technology has achieved breakthroughs
With the advancement of precision medicine, the progress of stem cell technology, cell therapy technology, and new drugs, the survival of cancer patients will be greatly improved, and some cancers will be avoided through preventive treatment, and some can even be completely cured. Can you completely overcome cancer? This question should be left to answer. Obviously, it may now be at a strategic turning point in the rapid advancement of technology.
10. Slow disease management will be marketized and networked
Now through the mobile Internet, it is possible to effectively manage and provide better services for chronically ill patients. Because this part of the public hospitals have no ability and willingness to do it, and it is difficult for Chinese general practitioners to form effective health care forces (which cannot be formed in the foreseeable future, mainly because it is difficult for qualified doctors to cultivate). Will become an area dominated by market forces. The question now is who will pay? If this problem is overcome, the market-based chronic disease management technology will be greatly developed. As a result, it provides better basic medical care services for ordinary people, and can also greatly save the cost of medical insurance payment.
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