According to the forecast of China Sportcom, the growth rate of the national pharmaceutical retail market in 2012 will return to more than 10%, and the market size will reach 226.8 billion yuan.
However, the retail pharmacies in the industry generally said that the outlook is hardly optimistic: the zero rate will further erode the retail pharmacy share, and the expansion of essential drugs will further erode the number of high-margin products. In addition, the industry is optimistic about the outbreak of new prescriptions in Shenzhen. No expected results have been achieved.
The sharp rise in industry expense ratios is constrained by the continuing downturn in the macro economy and the uncertainties in policy prospects. The development of pharmacies has obviously slowed down. The growth rate of the retail market in 2011 was 9.98%, which was significantly lower than the growth rate of over 15% in the past few years. In 2011, the overall sales of the top 100 retail enterprises with comprehensive competitiveness in China increased by 9.01% over the total number of the top 100 companies in the previous year, and the growth rate also slowed down.
Wu Jun, general manager of China National Health Information Co., said in an interview with Southern Metropolis Daily reporters that this is the first time that pharmaceutical retail terminals have grown less than 10% in recent years. The emergence of new historical lows is related to a large macro economy, related to the medical reform policy, and also related to the recent surge in shop rents and labor costs.
The CEO of a large drug chain company in Guangzhou bluntly stated that the rise in rents for pharmacies in first-tier cities has reached an irresolute level. Last year, a number of pharmacies closed for this purpose.
According to him, the retail pharmacies had mostly hoped to put on high-margin non-pharmaceutical or health food products. Since last year, due to the sluggish economic environment, the warm-up period of the previous year's holiday economy was being promoted in the sales of health food products. It is getting shorter and shorter, and the shorter warm-up period will undoubtedly further reduce the proportion of non-drug products in retail pharmacy revenue. The lower the proportion, the more difficult it is for the drug retail industry.
Data from forecasting agencies shows the generality of this issue. According to Ren Guanghui, Chief Technology Officer of China Consun International, the overall non-pharmaceutical growth and share will decrease compared to 2011 due to the decline in the proportion of health care products, medical devices, and cosmetics. )
The decline in non-pharmaceutical growth seems to be a blow to the chain pharmacies currently trying to diversify.
“These drugstores originally hoped to increase the gross profit of the industry by aggravating non-pharmaceutical sales, but this effort has failed in the face of a sluggish economic environment and shrinking consumer non-pharmaceutical spending. Some agencies have forecast that prescription drugs will be retailed in 2012. The market growth rate increased by 4 percentage points.†Said the pharmacy manager said.
One industry-recognized argument is that as the demand for medical care and medicines increases, the cost of medicines will continue to rise, the pressure on the government and the public for price cuts will continue, and the gross margin of medicines will continue to decline. If the proportion of non-pharmaceutical sales and the contribution rate of gross profit cannot be effectively improved, with the decline of drug gross profit and the increase of expenses, Chinese pharmaceutical retail companies will face a crisis of survival.
However, retail pharmacies from big cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou generally report to reporters that the pharmacy's cost rate has reached as high as 36% to 38%.
Diversification is not easy. In the wake of a series of cold winters, retail pharmacies have generally begun to diversify.
Some companies even frankly stated that the success or failure of the diversification model determines the survival of Chinese pharmaceutical retail companies in the absence of existing policies.
However, the results of testing water in some chain pharmacies are not satisfactory. Take Dashen Lin as an example. The senior executives who were recruited from Watsons last year have already left.
According to Da Senlin's previous idea, he wanted to draw on the Watson's drug-cosmetic model and increase the sales of cosmeceuticals to boost performance.
“Daseng Lin originally intended to renovate 100 stores, but the plan was eventually ran aground. The reason that Dashen Lin’s plan was stranded was already buried, and its pharmacy site was chosen where the demand for medicines was high, not Big business district.†A member of a Guangdong pharmacy alliance that is familiar with the Great Senlin model told reporters.
The reporters noted that according to the agency’s forecast, the drug retailing industry will bottom out in the second half of this year, and the growth rate of the national pharmaceutical retail market in 2012 will return to more than 10%.
However, this forecast, in the eyes of some companies in the industry, has somewhat exaggerated the positives and overlooked potential negatives.
According to the opinion of Jian Jianhua, Director of the Department of Market Order of the Ministry of Commerce, Beijing Friendship Hospital began to implement the reform of public hospitals in July. Shenzhen Municipality introduced the agency’s plan to establish a competition mechanism between pharmacies and hospital pharmacies in order to change the status quo of drug retailing. The pharmaceutical retail industry is a big plus.
However, participating pharmacies reported to reporters that Shenzhen's prescription outflow was lower than expected. They believe that the so-called policy of allowing patients to dispense prescriptions into retail pharmacies is basically not effective.
In the view of many experts, the separation of medicines will be the beginning of rejuvenation of the pharmaceutical retail industry, and Yi Hung Church’s chairman, Hung Hung Hsien, bluntly stated that if the real medical separation is definitely a good thing for the pharmaceutical retail industry, this is only an expectation.
“Our pessimistic view of China's pharmaceutical retail industry is pessimistic. The hospital's drug price gap threatens the growth of medicines. There are also uncertainties in the health insurance policy. There is news that even the future policy will cancel the personal account of the medical insurance card. If this is really abolished, I think we will face the demise of the pharmaceutical retail industry," said Yan Hongxian.
According to Qi Hongxian, according to the industry average sales figures, the consumption of medical insurance credit cards accounted for about one-third of the total retail drugstore drug customers.
In addition to the above issues, the New Deal, which is still brewing and is expected to be introduced in the anti-retroactive retail market, has also undermined the confidence of retail pharmacies. In the eyes of industry players, this policy will significantly reduce the sales of prescription antibiotics in pharmacies.
Collaborate with a primary hospital or a new outlet: “One prescription right and one medical insurance point.†Dong Zhaohui, deputy director of the Medical Insurance Research Office of the Social Security Institute of the Ministry of Social Security, summed up the two major factors constraining the development of retail pharmacies.
According to his calculations, pharmacies account for 20% of the entire pharmaceutical market share. This is a result of social retail drugstores' efforts. It is no longer possible to increase this proportion. Only 5% of the medical insurance funds went to social retail pharmacies, and the bulk of them went to hospitals.
Dong Zhaohui believes that for some retail drugstores nowadays, there is a very good chance of cooperating with medical institutions to integrate into the primary health care system because, under the so-called basic medicine system, primary medical institutions have prescription rights, but they lack drugs and pharmacies have Drugs but lack of prescription rights, the two are exactly complementary.
In addition, pharmacies can provide specialized pharmacist services for chronic patients. There is room for potential exploitation in this area. The second is whether pharmacies can strive to turn policies into clinics. If the medical service market is open, the pharmaceutical retail industry will usher in new opportunities for development.
The medical version of "Xiaoxian Station" is ready to come out?
The cold winter in the industry has been reluctant to disperse, and there are new policies aimed at reducing the price of medicines for pharmacies. According to some medical retail companies in Guangzhou, the Guangzhou Municipal Price Bureau is currently contacting the city's medical insurance pharmacy to discuss the model of the "Xiaoxian Inn", which is a low-priced store, and to launch a cheap pharmacy program in the drugstore.
“According to the Guangzhou Municipal Price Bureau, they will provide a batch of subsidies to retail pharmacies in the form of financial subsidies, retail pharmacies sell at 10 points below the market, and retail pharmacies participating in negotiations hope that the government will introduce them as “deficient.†How much is the government's model of how much?†said one person close to the Price Bureau.
Since the "Xiaoxian Inn" dominated by the supply and marketing cooperatives was once accused of unfair prices and the popularity was dismal, the participating retail pharmacies were cautious about the proposal of the Price Bureau. However, according to reports of retail pharmacies, the Price Bureau will soon launch a medical version of “Xiaoxian Inn†in September.
However, the retail pharmacies in the industry generally said that the outlook is hardly optimistic: the zero rate will further erode the retail pharmacy share, and the expansion of essential drugs will further erode the number of high-margin products. In addition, the industry is optimistic about the outbreak of new prescriptions in Shenzhen. No expected results have been achieved.
The sharp rise in industry expense ratios is constrained by the continuing downturn in the macro economy and the uncertainties in policy prospects. The development of pharmacies has obviously slowed down. The growth rate of the retail market in 2011 was 9.98%, which was significantly lower than the growth rate of over 15% in the past few years. In 2011, the overall sales of the top 100 retail enterprises with comprehensive competitiveness in China increased by 9.01% over the total number of the top 100 companies in the previous year, and the growth rate also slowed down.
Wu Jun, general manager of China National Health Information Co., said in an interview with Southern Metropolis Daily reporters that this is the first time that pharmaceutical retail terminals have grown less than 10% in recent years. The emergence of new historical lows is related to a large macro economy, related to the medical reform policy, and also related to the recent surge in shop rents and labor costs.
The CEO of a large drug chain company in Guangzhou bluntly stated that the rise in rents for pharmacies in first-tier cities has reached an irresolute level. Last year, a number of pharmacies closed for this purpose.
According to him, the retail pharmacies had mostly hoped to put on high-margin non-pharmaceutical or health food products. Since last year, due to the sluggish economic environment, the warm-up period of the previous year's holiday economy was being promoted in the sales of health food products. It is getting shorter and shorter, and the shorter warm-up period will undoubtedly further reduce the proportion of non-drug products in retail pharmacy revenue. The lower the proportion, the more difficult it is for the drug retail industry.
Data from forecasting agencies shows the generality of this issue. According to Ren Guanghui, Chief Technology Officer of China Consun International, the overall non-pharmaceutical growth and share will decrease compared to 2011 due to the decline in the proportion of health care products, medical devices, and cosmetics. )
The decline in non-pharmaceutical growth seems to be a blow to the chain pharmacies currently trying to diversify.
“These drugstores originally hoped to increase the gross profit of the industry by aggravating non-pharmaceutical sales, but this effort has failed in the face of a sluggish economic environment and shrinking consumer non-pharmaceutical spending. Some agencies have forecast that prescription drugs will be retailed in 2012. The market growth rate increased by 4 percentage points.†Said the pharmacy manager said.
One industry-recognized argument is that as the demand for medical care and medicines increases, the cost of medicines will continue to rise, the pressure on the government and the public for price cuts will continue, and the gross margin of medicines will continue to decline. If the proportion of non-pharmaceutical sales and the contribution rate of gross profit cannot be effectively improved, with the decline of drug gross profit and the increase of expenses, Chinese pharmaceutical retail companies will face a crisis of survival.
However, retail pharmacies from big cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou generally report to reporters that the pharmacy's cost rate has reached as high as 36% to 38%.
Diversification is not easy. In the wake of a series of cold winters, retail pharmacies have generally begun to diversify.
Some companies even frankly stated that the success or failure of the diversification model determines the survival of Chinese pharmaceutical retail companies in the absence of existing policies.
However, the results of testing water in some chain pharmacies are not satisfactory. Take Dashen Lin as an example. The senior executives who were recruited from Watsons last year have already left.
According to Da Senlin's previous idea, he wanted to draw on the Watson's drug-cosmetic model and increase the sales of cosmeceuticals to boost performance.
“Daseng Lin originally intended to renovate 100 stores, but the plan was eventually ran aground. The reason that Dashen Lin’s plan was stranded was already buried, and its pharmacy site was chosen where the demand for medicines was high, not Big business district.†A member of a Guangdong pharmacy alliance that is familiar with the Great Senlin model told reporters.
The reporters noted that according to the agency’s forecast, the drug retailing industry will bottom out in the second half of this year, and the growth rate of the national pharmaceutical retail market in 2012 will return to more than 10%.
However, this forecast, in the eyes of some companies in the industry, has somewhat exaggerated the positives and overlooked potential negatives.
According to the opinion of Jian Jianhua, Director of the Department of Market Order of the Ministry of Commerce, Beijing Friendship Hospital began to implement the reform of public hospitals in July. Shenzhen Municipality introduced the agency’s plan to establish a competition mechanism between pharmacies and hospital pharmacies in order to change the status quo of drug retailing. The pharmaceutical retail industry is a big plus.
However, participating pharmacies reported to reporters that Shenzhen's prescription outflow was lower than expected. They believe that the so-called policy of allowing patients to dispense prescriptions into retail pharmacies is basically not effective.
In the view of many experts, the separation of medicines will be the beginning of rejuvenation of the pharmaceutical retail industry, and Yi Hung Church’s chairman, Hung Hung Hsien, bluntly stated that if the real medical separation is definitely a good thing for the pharmaceutical retail industry, this is only an expectation.
“Our pessimistic view of China's pharmaceutical retail industry is pessimistic. The hospital's drug price gap threatens the growth of medicines. There are also uncertainties in the health insurance policy. There is news that even the future policy will cancel the personal account of the medical insurance card. If this is really abolished, I think we will face the demise of the pharmaceutical retail industry," said Yan Hongxian.
According to Qi Hongxian, according to the industry average sales figures, the consumption of medical insurance credit cards accounted for about one-third of the total retail drugstore drug customers.
In addition to the above issues, the New Deal, which is still brewing and is expected to be introduced in the anti-retroactive retail market, has also undermined the confidence of retail pharmacies. In the eyes of industry players, this policy will significantly reduce the sales of prescription antibiotics in pharmacies.
Collaborate with a primary hospital or a new outlet: “One prescription right and one medical insurance point.†Dong Zhaohui, deputy director of the Medical Insurance Research Office of the Social Security Institute of the Ministry of Social Security, summed up the two major factors constraining the development of retail pharmacies.
According to his calculations, pharmacies account for 20% of the entire pharmaceutical market share. This is a result of social retail drugstores' efforts. It is no longer possible to increase this proportion. Only 5% of the medical insurance funds went to social retail pharmacies, and the bulk of them went to hospitals.
Dong Zhaohui believes that for some retail drugstores nowadays, there is a very good chance of cooperating with medical institutions to integrate into the primary health care system because, under the so-called basic medicine system, primary medical institutions have prescription rights, but they lack drugs and pharmacies have Drugs but lack of prescription rights, the two are exactly complementary.
In addition, pharmacies can provide specialized pharmacist services for chronic patients. There is room for potential exploitation in this area. The second is whether pharmacies can strive to turn policies into clinics. If the medical service market is open, the pharmaceutical retail industry will usher in new opportunities for development.
The medical version of "Xiaoxian Station" is ready to come out?
The cold winter in the industry has been reluctant to disperse, and there are new policies aimed at reducing the price of medicines for pharmacies. According to some medical retail companies in Guangzhou, the Guangzhou Municipal Price Bureau is currently contacting the city's medical insurance pharmacy to discuss the model of the "Xiaoxian Inn", which is a low-priced store, and to launch a cheap pharmacy program in the drugstore.
“According to the Guangzhou Municipal Price Bureau, they will provide a batch of subsidies to retail pharmacies in the form of financial subsidies, retail pharmacies sell at 10 points below the market, and retail pharmacies participating in negotiations hope that the government will introduce them as “deficient.†How much is the government's model of how much?†said one person close to the Price Bureau.
Since the "Xiaoxian Inn" dominated by the supply and marketing cooperatives was once accused of unfair prices and the popularity was dismal, the participating retail pharmacies were cautious about the proposal of the Price Bureau. However, according to reports of retail pharmacies, the Price Bureau will soon launch a medical version of “Xiaoxian Inn†in September.
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